WEEKLY WAITE-O-GRAM (REL. 53.0)

IT’S THE DEMOGRAPHICS, STUPID!

Now that the dust has begun to settle on the US election, it is increasingly clear that the Republican Party needs to move beyond its aging, sagging and shrinking base – white males – if it is to ever again win nationally. Hispanics and Asian-Americans are two of the fastest-growing segments of the American electorate, yet, putting aside courting Cuban-Americans in Florida, the GOP has done little to connect with these voters. This has led to the loss of once-reliable states like New Mexico, Nevada and Colorado. Left unchecked, even rock-ribbed Republican states like Arizona and Texas could tumble into the arms of the Democrats.

TAKE A PAGE FROM THE CONSERVATIVE PLAYBOOK

As Republicans regroup, they would do well to look north of the border, to their ideological cousins, the Conservative Party of Canada. Much of the credit for moving the Tories from minority status to majority government stems from a conscious strategy from 2004 onwards to reach out to key immigrant and ethic blocs, including South and East Asians. Recent immigrants for generations had been the almost exclusive constituency of the Liberal Party, to the point that the Conservatives essentially gave up trying. Today, thanks to the tireless efforts of Jason Kenney, Minister of Citizenship, Immigration and Multiculturalism and the active support of Stephen Harper, the Conservatives now attract significant support from the Indo-Canadians, Chinese-Canadians, Korean-Canadians and Filipino-Canadians, among others. That support has translated into seats in Parliament. The GOP would do well to borrow the Conservative playbook – or draft Mr. Kenney!

CALL ME MAYBE

At about 6 PM on American Election Day I received a frantic call from my California-dwelling daughter Emily – from the voting booth! “Dad”, she whispered into her cell phone, “How should I vote on Proposition 30?” A little stunned – and not even knowing if advising a voter over the phone is legal or not – I finally whispered back “Vote Yes on 30. It raises taxes ¼% for education...and maybe your tuition fees at UCLA won’t go up so fast.”  She thanked me...and was gone. And I am not sure why I whispered at my end – the only set of ears in the room belonged to our yellow lab, Tashi, who has exhibited zero interest in politics or much else, excepting dinner.

PROMISES, PROMISES

Every four years, like clockwork, I get calls or e-mails from friends, family-members and colleagues in the US – folks whose politics by the way vary from far right to far left – claiming that they will DEFINITELY be moving to Canada if one or the other of the major candidates is elected.  Over the years, had all the people who told me they were coming...actually come...it would have filled a city the size of Mississauga. In reality, not a single person has made the move. Maybe they checked out our weather. Or our tax code!

BRIDGING THE GAP

The US contest of most relevance to Canadians was an initiative on the ballot in Michigan to change the state’s constitution...to force a vote on building a second bridge from Windsor to Detroit. The initiative was the brain-child of Michigan’s Matty Moroun, who owns the aging and often clogged (but highly profitable) Ambassador Bridge. Mr. Moroun, who has never met a lawyer he didn’t want to hire, cooked up the constitutional change as a way to slow up the wheels of progress. And why does all of this matter to Canadians? Windsor-Detroit is the busiest crossing in the world - $120 billion in goods pass across it annually. Ease of passage effects productivity for hundreds of Canadian companies and businesses. Mr. Moroun by the way spent $32 million of his own money trying to get his initiative passed – which it didn’t. Hopefully he won’t try to recover that loss...through higher tolls!

MONEY ON THE MOVE

While none of my friends, relatives, etc. moved to Canada after the election...quite a number have been moving their assets. November and December are typically a time of financial assessment and rebalancing anyway...but things seem to have taken on added urgency with the re-election of President Obama and the approach of the dreaded “Fiscal Cliff”.  And that’s the thing about money – it can, legally, move to where it will be most productive (or least taxed). Anyone with a good financial planner can at least explore various options. And this is of course where bureaucrats and revenue agencies often stumble. In the UK, for example, the government once decided to raise revenue by setting a top rate of 91%. All they got out of it was a pittance of revenue...a mass exodus of talented people...and the Beatles song, “Taxman”.  

AND FINALLY...

The best thing about American elections is that we have a free ring-side seat to the spectacle...without having to pay a penny of the $2 billion cost!